Can US Stop China From Taking Taiwan? The Truth About US Wargames
Eurasia Naval Insight
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The CSIS, a US think tank, recently conducted a wargame predicting a US victory against China in a conflict over Taiwan. However, key assumptions underpinning the US victory are far from certain, and therefore a Chinese victory is quite plausible in reality.
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CHAPTERS
04:12 – Cherry-picked Historical Examples
11:23 – Full Japanese Support Really Assured?
17:46 – Questionable JASSM-ER Assumption
21:53 – US Submarines In Taiwan Strait?
26:07 – What To Take Away From The Wargame
Keywords: Taiwan Strait, cross-strait, PLA Navy, PLAN, surface warships, aircraft carriers, submarines, naval technology, Air Force, airpower, Type 055, Type 075 LHD, amphibious warfare, modern warship, J-20, F-35, Chinese military, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, US Navy, Japanese Navy, JMSDF, Joint Air To Surface Standoff Missile, LRASM, ballistic missile
13.10.2023
This "thinktank"/ neo-con US weapon manufacturers are not just kidding themselves. They're trying to bluff the American public and inflate their chances in order to manufacture public consent for a conflict with China.
Taiwan is part of China, which was clearly stated in the Potsdam Declaration before the end of World War II. The lack of reunification between mainland China and Taiwan can be seen as the fact that the post-World War II order has not yet been implemented. The determination of the Chinese to unify Taiwan is at no cost. If the United States intervenes, please be prepared to die tens of millions of people.
台灣屬於中國一部分，是二戰結束前的波茨坦公告中明確說明的。中國大陸和台灣沒有統一，可以視作二戰戰後秩序還未得到施行。 中國人統一台灣的決心是不計任何代價的。美國如果介入，請做好準備死亡幾千萬人，甚至上億人同歸於盡的準備。
The fact that China manufacturing output is more than US, UK, Japan and Germany combined, China produces more than half of the steel in the world, and China has the biggest automotive and shipbuilding industry and a strong aerospace industry, and China can easily turn that manufacturing capacity into military power. How can US defeat such a manufacturing power with 1.3 billion population in their doorstep? That is just absurd!
这个问题其实不大容易推论，因为不确定到时候有多少国家会参与进来。就事论事的说，如果中国和台湾单打独斗，那么早在数年前甚至十数年前中国就具备了武统台湾的能力。但那只是理想条件下的设想，真实的现状是，解放军已经做好了一大桌菜，现在就是看来多少人吃的问题，如果来的人多当然存在不够吃的可能性。不过中国也没什么好怕的，首先台湾不是一条船，划不走。其二时间在中国这边，其三不要忘了太祖那句话：打得一拳开，免得百拳来。战争的具体情况和环境很大程度取决于中国如何在世界上纵横捭阖，合纵连横，一方面把敌人变少，减少损失，另一方面努力具备请全部人吃饭的能力。
China should just use the hypersonic missiles against the US aircraft carrier group .
Killing thousands.
USA would not dare to fight a war against China.
If you look back to the history, Every war the US has fought is not in its own soil. If all of those wars had to be fought in its own soil, America didn't have fought any of those wars at the first place.
America's one unmodifiable behaviour is that it always tries to destroy other countries and earn profit out of it. That's how the US keep themselves top of world. I extremely condemn those countries who always stand by America's side on wherever they want go war with. America may be the strongest but they are weak too without its allies. They haven't experienced of fighting war on its own yet.
China is not Iraq, Syria, Libya, and other weaker countries.
"America has endeavored to revitalize its alliances with Japan, Australia and the Philippines in part because it knows that in the event of a military contingency over Taiwan, it will look to those countries for assistance, including the use of their military bases. In contrast, given its close ties with Beijing, Washington cannot assume that Bangkok would agree to a request for logistical support in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As it has done with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Thailand would almost certainly declare its neutrality and refuse U.S. forces access to its air bases and ports. ..So what is the future of the U.S.-Thai alliance? In short, its future will closely resemble its recent past. Cobra Gold and other exercises will continue, but there will be no major initiatives. As such, the alliance seems destined to be relegated to the second or even third tier of America’s strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific." https://fulcrum.sg/why-is-the-u-s-thai-alliance-treading-water/
IMO, Japanese submarines will certainly assist the US Navy in defending Taiwan, & they can operate in the strait better than SSNs. Also the LA &/ Virginia clasess SSNs will be helped by at least 2 SSGNs carrying 154 SLCMs each, striking air/naval bases & ships.
No matter what the outcome US involvement in the conflict between China and China's rogue state is bad for the US. We would lose more assets than we did in Afghanistan and Iraq – Billions. And who pays for it? US taxpayer pays. The winners? The DC bureaucrats who feed war push to sell arms to Ukraine on the taxpayer dime. Let's defend America from the ongoing southern invasion on our own soil!
What has Taiwan to do with America and their Allies???
My God, why we need to care about that ??? because of the same reason we lost 60,000 young Americans in Vietnam.
🚩 This channel is thinly veiled Chinese propaganda. Be aware.
This BS simulation is completely build on a whatabolism assumption that JASMER would be extremely impactful against Chinese navy.
And in the simulation Chinese troops was never prepared for a joint attack By the US and Japan — Guess which country is the top1 drone manufacture and ship manufacture in the world?
Think tanks in the US will make anything up, since 2001, oh no wait since the 60s. Asia is for Asians not Europeans or North Americans. Russia is part of Asia the US has no business there, except that it still acts like a hegemonic power because enough rats 🐀 still follow it around. Kick em to the curve , Asia for Asians. They erected a wall this time around, let ‘em stay in it.
If US get involved . This will lead to nuclear war . Because US can't help Taiwan to win in China Taiwan War
If the American public does not want to go to war with China over Taiwan, then the Japanese public would be even less so inclinded. China is a giant neighbor and Japan has no nuclear weapons. Why would the Japanese people want to go to war with as country that does not threaten it ? China wants to reclaim Taiwan, not Japan.
Thats why America land again in Philippines.. poor Philippines was used again by America..if war will start..what Philippines can do? It became like Ukraine.. china easily take Taiwan what ever they want..even nato know that..
One has to be careful of what the military predicts. It is to their benefit to claim insufficient assets gain a bigger budget. And frankly, the analysts in CSIS are typically more capable than those in the military. In fact, CSIS uses a lot of former military.
If you think the PK and interception is wrong, what are your estimates? You have to use what is available.
It should be pointed out that the US overestimated Iraq for Desert Storm, overestimated Russia in Ukraine, and underestimated the UK in the Falkland Wars.
Japan openly stated that they would support the US. Granted, Japan may change their mine. However, Japan is economically dependent on the US and hostile to China. China's Wolf Warriors did not help. While not a certainty, I beieve Japanese support is probable.
Also, most of the scenarios assumed a Chinese surprise attack on unprepared US assets. That may not be realistic.
I don't know how realistic a Chinese invasion would be, but I don't believe their assumptions ar unreasonable.
What was not modelled was a US disyant blockade of China. China can not counter a distant blockade and faces an economic collapse. In such a situation, it does not matter if China takes Taiwan.
The main purpose of this war game is to sell weapons to Taiwan. Nothing more.
America and Hollywood dreams 😂😂😂
祖國日益強大…支持祖國把這個無賴的垃圾美國的政治惡勢力趕出寶島台灣。垃圾美國是全世界唯一恐怖政客利益團體組織，更是世界的亂源跟毒瘤。。。垃圾美國在全世界各個區域製造衝突紛亂戰爭，來維護自己的霸權地位。這就是他的真本質。。。
支持全球季節使用垃圾美元👎👎👎👎👎👎👎👎👎👎當國際貨幣💲
Apparently, the only weapon's the Russians have left in Ukraine are shovels and the only thing the Chinese will have are chopsticks.
Japan 🇯🇵 will definitely enter the war because they know that they’ll be next
Abe did not want a war and was assassinated by the CIA
Go ahead and try China. This is 💯% US military information to sink your “imitation” Chinese navy to the very bottom of the ocean. Go ahead and make the day of the highly trained and seasoned US NAVY and US military.🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸🦅🇺🇸
Can US stop China from taking Taiwan?
What? You have to be an idiot to ask such a stupid question.
It’s like asking “Can China stop the US from taking Maryland?”
It’s called Reunification, not “taking”.
Hypersonic missiles will destroy every US Navy ship!
You underestimate the Japanese support for Taiwan. The recent defense white paper from Japan labels the stability of the Taiwan situation as critical to Japan's security. They have changed the legal framework surrounding the SDF to all it to act in defense of others, since in their eyes the situation would affect the defense of Japan.
Russia did not play badly
This guy is nit picking open source USN info and just pulling this fantasy fan fiction PLAN out of his ass. This is china trying to do the same kinda hype nonsense they saw the US do on the discovery channel back in the 90s and Russia copied in the 00s here on YouTube that got Putin thinking he could invade Ukraine and take kiev. This is bluster hyping the CCP military industrial complex to lobby for the next disastrous bloody quagmire war but this time in the independent developed metropolitan democracy of Taiwan, Disregard this warmongering please!!!!!
From the Chinese perspective, if the US engages, it seems the most logical tactic should be that every US military base within 1500kms of the theater would be targeted, none of this hesitation bs, all naval and aircraft assets within that diameter should be targeted and satellites as well and undersea infrastructure such as communications cables. So basically making it clear in advance that if the US attacks it's game over and everything US will be attacked and an anti US blockade imposed in the entire region. Otherwise, it would just be a continuous conflict, i would imagine and the US would continue to lever first island chain countries
謝謝！
White talking
🎉
They are so many way China can destroy the US…..!!!!!!!!!! China out guns the US everythings…….!!!!!!!! Too much drones under sea, air, missiles, and everythings……!!!!!!! All of the US bass in Korea, Japan, Guam, and the Philippines will be destroy and all the US ships and submarines will be sink period there no chance for America survive for long in China backyard……!!!!!!!!
I don't think Japanese is stupid enough to medlle with Taiwan. No matter China wins or loses China is not going any where， and will seek revenge
How about the assumption that the Chinese start a blockade, a missile attack, without any kind of landing until US weapons are destroyed or exhausted? A bombing attack on TSMC, not necessary the factories themselves, but all the water, electricity, transport hubs around it would stop production. Who would want to go to work there? The entire Western high tech industry dies right then. Most prominently Apple.
One is a manufacturing behemoth they are at their own backyard US is thousands of miles away if US loses this war their projection of power is finished lol
The CSIS analysis seems so amateurish with so little intelligent analysis. I can’t believe the level of analysts these days. But then u look at ukraine war and see how totally delusional they were and still in. In fact Biden just announced that ukraine is winning.
China's greatest weakness is that 1.4 billion is controlled by a man with a fourth grade education.
You might want to actually include some facts. Air Force wargame was fantasy, based on a biological attack that takes out a pacific theater carrier prior to outbreak of war, a pearl harboir surprise attack with the influence of COVID still on everyone's mind. China will have more countries against them the way they are doing and losing diplomatically.
I don't trust any results of wargames funded by any government involved in the hypothetical war. they will always be politically and ideologically driven. what i do think many wargames will miscalculate is the overall damage and political ramifications caused by the conflict. they always tend to always under predict the ripple effects because to ever prove if they were right or wrong in the predictions you have to have said war occur and hopefully nobody wants that. and if there was a peaceful time, we'd never spend the effort or time to think of the war to begin with. Too busy thinking of other issues. best to leave the war in the minds of the imagination is the best scenario for everyone. but if you want to satisfy curiosity just do the wargames yourself for your own benefit,, that's what I like to do.
thanks for taking a stab at this highly anticipated topic however like all simulation at the end of the day you realize you need more players and more elements added in and the game gets more complicated and longer as more questions than answers are received. nobody disagrees that a us vs china will be costly for both sides but the economic outcome will be disastrous for global economy. It wont be a war with a profitable outcome but more of a matter of survival. also. USA outnumber china in nuclear weapons and also nuclear delivery platforms and capabilities. this will surface again like how Putin mentioned it if Ukraine wins on the battlefield, he will use tactical nukes, just like he uses any conventional munitions. I can see another outcome where US and allies lose Taiwan but then offer a stern warning to china any movement out of the inner island chain by the PLA ships, aircraft etc, we will get the nuclear weapons out and what will China do then? a nuclear exchange would be suicidal for them. and the whole strategic point they said for getting Taiwan was to break out of containment in the 1st island's chain and advance into the Pacific. the wargame ended too quickly needs to be played as a 5 year campaign with the possibility of new countries mobilizing to join the fight. anyways well done video and counter points are welcome to iterate more to the final realistic outcome is always good. thanks.
Japan better .china hates japan ..usa gos to wsr with china japan and south korea better join up with usa
your missing out a lot of information when talking about the japanese interviention
you did't mention about roll of north korea
I see that every analysis or assessment has missed one highly possible scenario….if war really broke out, some Taiwanese military units might change side. I wouldnt be surprised at all.
Lol this is so stupid
😮 Japan is not that stupid because they have to watch out for the Russians and why bring your country into war for other without benefits, that is why America has to consider if Japan would help or not. The two countries used to be enemy and Japanese is the first nation to experience the nuclear bombs. Remember America, "My Enemy's enemy is my friend ". It's always a lost if war happened on your mother land even you win. War is just a tool to restart a civilization from progressing to stone age compared to today's advancement civilization.
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